The Arkle Trophy brings together the very best of the Irish and British novice chasers and it's a race in which the cream invariably rises to the top.
While only one market leader, Azertyuiop (5/4 Bluesquare), has been successful in the past decade, the biggest priced winner in that time was Flagship Uberalles at 11/1 (1999), so this is a good race for punters to get stuck into ante post. Before you do, though, you need to be sure you are getting value for money; otherwise what's the point of tying up your money for another six weeks with no guarantee you will get a run for your money.
Let's start with the current favourite, Captain Cee Bee, who, on the face of it, has plenty going for him. He ought to be 2-2 over fences as, after sluicing home on his chasing debut at Naas (the form of which has since been franked by the runner-up Zaarito), he he would have beaten Sizing Europe at Leopardstown over Christmas but for a fall at the last .Despite that mistake, he has jumped well in the main and, just as important, boasts that all-important festival form, having won the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 2008, so what's not to like?
Well, I'm not convinced Sizing Europe was at his very best at Leopardstown, which makes the form questionable, while it's a big ask for him to come back from all the injury problems he has had to win what is always a brutal race. As a nine-year-old, he'd also be the oldest winner since the brilliant Moscow Flyer in 2002. The negatives are stacking up and while his current price of 4/1 (general) will shorten further should he win his prep race (possibly back at Naas on Saturday), I just can't have him for love nor money.
Thanks to his rival's last fence departure, Sizing Europe is now 4-4 since going chasing this season and this natural jumper is fully entitled to be second favourite at a top price of 13/2 (Sportingbet). Whether he can put it all together at the festival remains to be seen, though. He's disappointed there before when stopping quickly after jumping the second last in the 2008 Champion Hurdle and it's questionable what he will find when the pressure is applied up the Cheltenham hill, as it surely will.
Take the front two out, and the race looks very open indeed. Somersby (7/1 Ladbrokes) has an obvious chance as he jumps well and is proven around Cheltenham, having finished third in last year's Supreme. He too is an intended runner this weekend so there is potential for his price to shorten, although no where near as much potential as that of LONG RUN, who could be trading at half his current odds of 10/1 (William Hill) should he win the Kingmaker at Warwick on Saturday, as expected.
The ex-French five-year-old was last seen out at Kempton on Boxing Day when turning the 3m Feltham Novices' Chase into a procession, after which bookmakers were quick to price him up for the RSA Chase. However, connections already have Punchestowns for that race and there must be a strong temptation to keep the pair part. Besides, as a young horse with enormous potential, why would you want to subject him to a gruelling race over 3m, as the RSA always is, at this stage of his career?
Some have crabbed his jumping as he wasn't foot perfect at Kempton, but he was only ever going half-pace that day and the searching gallop of the Arkle will suit him much better while, after seeing him jump round right-handed Kempton, I'm convinced this eight-time Auteuil winner will prefer racing left-handed again at Cheltenham. In fact, I don't see the drop back to 2m being a problem at all as he will be able to swing along at his own pace, much in the same way as 2008 winner Tidal Bay, whom no-one now believes is a two-miler.
Granted, for us to have any chance of a run for our money, he has to first win on Saturday (he will be a very short price to do so) and then be targeted at this race - a strong possibility, providing he doesn't make mistakes. Some might wish to adopt a policy of wait and see but the lure of 10/1 is too big too resist in my opinion and I suggest you follow me in to small stakes at least, with a view to going in again once we know he is going to run in this Grade 1.
If he does end up running in the RSA Chase, I apologise in advance for putting you away and suggest backing his stablemate Riverside Theatre (10/1 Paddy Power) instead. He might not have as much potential as Long Run but he has a couple of bloodless victories at Newbury and Kempton to his name and, apart from one mistake at the former track, he has impressed with his jumping. He's best fresh so will be going straight to Cheltenham.
I've already made the point this is a good race for fancied horse but I can't resist a speculative punt on one at a huge price. The beast in question is KANGAROO COURT, who is trained by Emma Lavelle. The stable sent out Suntini to turn over a Paul Nicholls-trained hotpot at Newbury last Friday, yet that horse is not even mentioned in the same breath as Kangaroo Court, who has won all three of his novice chases this season. At a whopping 66/1 with Sportingbet (25/1 in places), he's crying out to be backed.
Recommended Bets:
Long Run 1pt @ 10/1 (back him again once this race has been confirmed as his target)
Kangaroo Court 0.5pt each-way @ 66/1 Sportingbet