Paddypower (free £30 bet) brought together some of the finest horse racing minds they could convince to work for free booze and a couple of PP baseball caps.
Jessica Harrington, Mark “The Couch” Winstanley, Derek Thompson and Paddypower's own Paul Ryan to give you their expert opinions on this year’s Cheltenham Festival. Here’s what they had to say at our first Cheltenham Preview night in the Submarine Bar in Dublin.
Tuesday – Day 1
Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices Hurdle
Derek Thompson: We’ll start this one with you Jessica. You’ve got one of the leading fancies for this race in Cork All Star. How is he shaping up for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle?
Jessica Harrington: He’s a lovely horse, but he doesn’t do any work at home. He’s very hard to train, but I’m delighted with him. His jumping has let some others in this season, but he’ll be going to the Festival in good form and I think he’s got a big chance. He loves the place and I think that’s half the battle.
The Couch: I think its Captain Cee Bee’s race to lose. He has done nothing wrong this season. Edward Harty isn’t the most well known of trainers and I reckon if he was trained by someone a bit more high profile he wouldn’t be anything like this price. If Jessica here or Willie Mullins was training this one, he’d be about half the price. He trounced the field by 10 lengths at Punchestown back in November and I think he’s the one they all have to beat.
DT: So it’s Captain Cee Bee for the Couch. I have to tell you, I was talking to Nicky Henderson recently and he told me that of all his Cheltenham runners, Khyber Kim has been working the best at home. He reckons he’ll turn up at Cheltenham in great form and he has a real chance in the opener.
Brian Flanagan: It used to be that the Triumph Hurdle was the real needle in a haystack race of the week, but this one is wide open. I like Jessie’s horse, but if I was having a bet, I’d make it a small one as there are just too many with strong claims, it’s hard to write off the chances of a lot of them in this one.
Irish Independent Arkle Chase
DT: Can someone explain to me why is Thyne Again such a big price?
Paul Ryan: Well it’s a bit like what the Couch said about Captain Cee Bee - he’s not from a fashionable yard, Liam Burke trains and he just doesn’t have the profile of a Meade or a Mullins. Bit I think probably more importantly, he needs it to be soft on the day. At the moment the going is good to soft and it’ll looks like being good come the opening day of the Festival.
Couch: I’d agree with Paul. Noland is an absolute certainty for this race. I was out at Sandown when he won a couple of weeks ago. I was watching him in the parade ring and he was carrying more condition than me, but still won with a bit to spare. He has winning form at Cheltenham, Paul Nicholls looks like he’ll run a pace-maker, Marodima, for him. I backed him after the good performance at Sandown and I think he’s going to keep shortening until the day. He’s a class animal and Paul Nicholls will have him spot on for the big day.
JH: If there is a hole in Noland’s claims it could be the ground. A lot of his wins have come on soft ground and he just might find it all happening a bit too quickly on good ground. I’d also have a bit of a question mark over Tidal Bay. Leslingtaylor is one to look out for.
BF: I wasn’t impressed with Noland. He struggled to beat some fairly average performances. I thought it was a horrible performance. Clopf is a fast horse, he was a top class novice hurdler last year, but it hasn’t worked out this year. He won his first race over fences. He fell at the last a couple of weeks ago when he was about to win. Eddie O’Grady has a great record at Cheltenham. If he jumps, he’s a major contender.
PR: I think the general consensus is that this is a weak renewal of the Arkle. Jumping is the main issue for Tidal Bay. Clopf needed to beat some horses by a bit more than he did to be a factor in the Arkle. Brian says Noland’s form isn’t great, but he will come on for that and Nicholls will have in perfect for the day.
Champion Hurdle
JH: I would love to see Sizing Europe win because Henry De Bromhead is a great friend of mine. He has done everything right, beating Osana, one of the best of the English. People question the hurdling technique and maybe he is slightly more ponderous over the obstacles than the others. I just don’t know about Sublimity. If he arrives in the same shape as last year, then fine, but if he’s not in form and it’s not good ground, he may struggle. He has had his ups and downs. It’s a bit like other years, I don’t think the English challenge is up to much and I fancy the Irish to win it again.
PR: I know Harchibald won on the all-weather at Dundalk the other night and we could talk about him until tomorrow night. One thing is for certain, he’ll look the best horse coming down the hill - he’ll trade at about 2/1 in running – but whether he gets up the hill is another matter. After he did his bit of work the other day, Phillip Carberry came out and said that Sublimity is in the best shape he has ever been.
BF: Sizing Europe for me. He has an excellent chance. He laughed at Hardy Eustace at Leopardstown and there’s not a lot of horses that have done that down through the years. AIG Champion Hurdle form always works out well for the Champion Hurdle, especially in recent years. Afsoun is nice each way bet, especially if they go a good gallop. Sophar City, could be a rising star. Hasn’t been seen in a while but I hear if he gets there, he has a good chance.
Couch: Sizing Europe. I can’t believe people are questioning his jumping. Look at the form. He annihilated Hardy and Al Eile and Sublimity only beat them by a couple of lengths. He has done nothing wrong and it’s a gift.
Wednesday - Day 2
Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle
Couch: Group Captain wins this. He has improved every time over hurdles. Alan King told me that he loved the hurly burly of the handicaps on the flat. He really does like this horse and he’s a tough. He will battle and that’s what you need to win this race. He’s the type of animal that will never win by a huge margin and never looks overly impressive.
JH: Forpaddydeplasterer would be a nice result for me, because he beat my one and it would be nice to see him frank that form. He needs soft ground and they may go too fast for him. Trafford Lad has a chance. I also like Venalmar. His trainer has a good record at Cheltenham and I know he fancies him.
BF Breeze it’s always a good trial. Beat Wingman, which is always a good race. Lewis, Nicholls and Walsh. Forpaddydeplasterer won’t win, I couldn’t see it
PR Woodbine Willy let the form of Philamar down recently
Royal & SunAlliance novices Chase
DT: Why is Joe Lively such a big price?
Couch: How can you back Joe Lively with Joe Tizzard riding? He’s absolutely desperate. I can’t back Air Force One either. Charlie Mann is mad as a brush.
BF: Oscar Park each way for me
JH: It’s a very open race. Much more open than it has been in recent years. I was impressed by Albertas Run at Ascot. Not too much of an opinion because I haven’t watched a lot of them. Starzaan could be a good outside bet after he bolted up at Wincanton. Hughie Morrison is a very good trainer and he could be one to offer a bit of vale.
Champion Chase
JH: Tamarinbleu has a great chance in this. He will take them on a merry old gallop and I was very impressed with him when won at Ascot. He galloped them into the ground and if he gets to Cheltenham in one piece, he could do it again.
BF: I don’t think Tamarinbleu will do it. I can’t have Master Minded. They went no gallop when he won at Newbury and I think he’ll be outpaced at Cheltenham.
Couch: Master Minded will win no problem. At Paul Nicholls’ yard, he has a steep hill. Kauto Star was the only one that was able to get up the hill three times in a row without breaking sweat, but Masterminded now stays upsides him on the gallops and he has no trouble keeping pace. I rang Paul and he says he has been working extremely well and he’ll have a great chance.
Champion Bumper
PR: Zaarito laughed at the field when winning that bumper at Naas. That was as good a bumper performance as we’ve seen. Willie Mullins and the Cheltenham bumper go hand in hand. Cousin Vinny won a bumper and got in every bit of trouble you could imagine. I’d like to see him have a bit more luck in running. Noel Meade was cornered at Lepordstown the other day and he was talking about how Corskeagh Royale is the apple of his eye at the moment. He reckons he’s as a good a horse as he has had. The worry is that the stable is out of form, but Noel thinks this horse will take the world of beating.
JH: I have one entry called Horner Woods. One run, one win at Navan back in February. He’s a nice horse, has a high cruising speed, but he’s 100% certain to run. If I was to have a bet I’d be backing one of Willie Mullins ones for the bumper.
BF: Zaarito is the one to beat. You have to be impressed with his performance at Naas.
Couch: 2 of the last 3 bumper winners have won that Naas bumper, it’s a big hint for the Festival. I backed Zaarito. Apt Approach is an absolute machine. He looks a quality horse, Ruby couldn’t pull him up yesterday and I always think that’s a very good sign. I backed them both, one of them will win. They’ll fight out the finish.
Thursday - Day 3
Ryanair Chase
BF: I’m not a big fan of his, but I think it could go right Our Vic on the day. He’s one of these horses that can go either way and it could be his day.
JH: Our Vic has been knocking on the door and it’s about time he won a big race. Mossbank will have a chance if he runs in this one. I run Knight Legend, but the English handicapper has been very unfair to him. He can’t win off that mark in handicaps so hopefully one or two of the main players can have an off day and we can take advantage. I don’t understand why there is such differences in opinion between the English and Irish handicappers.
Couch: Turko. He’s an improver and ran well in the Hennessy. Paul has won this race twice in the last few years. He’s been telling me that Turko is flying at home and has improved with every run this season. Ruby will ride. Mossbank is flattered by the Lexus form. They went no pace. I don’t know if I would trust Michael Hourigan to get a horse right for Cheltenham.
DT: Mossbank will take a lot of beating. It’s going to be one of the races of the season.
Ladbrokes World Hurdle
PR: For most of the last fortnight Inglis Drever has been odds on but he has been on the drift because the Johnson stable is going through a horrid time. It was shut down for a couple of weeks due to a bad batch of hay and my major concern is not about the horse, it’s about the stable. He’s banker for a lot of people.
Couch: Even Gazza wouldn’t back Inglis Drever at the moment, you can’t give him away. He’s had so many sick animals Rolf Harris will turn up at the yard. There are too many holes in form of the other horses. Kasbah Bliss impressed me, but his connections came out and said he needs fast ground after they earlier came out and said he needs soft ground. There’s something not quite right about that. Lough Derg isn’t a World Hurdle winner, I’ll give up if he wins.
JH: I’d love to see Inglis Drever win it. I think he’s a fantastic horse. He never looks like he’s going along too well, but he just takes off up the hill. I am worried about the yard being out of form. I’d go for Kasbah Bliss, who won well at Haydock, he’s young, improving and he’s the main danger.
BF: I agree with Jess. Kasbah Bliss has strengthened and now gets the 3 miles. With the problems of the stable, Inglis Drever has too many negatives. Kazal, if the ground is soft, could get into the frame.
DT: Lough Derg could be the value. He leads the order of Merit table and he’s a big price.
Friday - Day 4
Triumph Hurdle
JH: I run Personal Column in this one. He came from England having already won a hurdle. He did nothing for me to begin with. He’s tough, he wasn’t a great horse on the flat, he wasn’t rated all that high, but he goes on any ground, jumps well and he’s got a big heart. He’s a good outside bet.
BF: Franchoek looks every bit the winner. The Dark horse is Silverhand trained by Noel Meade. He won at Punchestown back in October and was only beaten by 3 lengths after a long layoff. Paul Carberry is certain that he’ll come along for that run and beat Beau Michael at Cheltenham.
Couch: Celestial Halo is improving. He has been doing some amazing work at home. I think he’s a class act. Francheok worries me because he wasn’t rated very high on the flat. Alan King said to me that he was slightly concerned that he’d be outpaced coming down the hill.
Gold Cup
JH: Denman. He is great jumper, he stays. I think he jumps better than Kauto.
Couch: Halcon Generladias. I’m not joking. He tried to give a lot of weight in the Welsh National. We have seen horses win the shocks and I can see the front two getting beat.
BF: Kauto Star is just a class act.
NAPS of the Festival
Wanango in the Grand Annual. Tommy Stack trains.
BF: Kasbah Bliss in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle
JH: Aigle D’Or in the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle
Couch: Masterminded in the Champion Chase
PR: Orpenide in the Kim Muir
DT: Toby Jug in the Peter O’Sullivan Steeplechase
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