Key Trends:
- Pre-race RPR (Racing Post Rating) of at least 139 - four winners in four runnings
- Won over 2m5f or further - 4/4
- At least three runs over hurdles - 4/4
- Top-two finish in a graded hurdle last time out - 4/4
- Won hurdle race over at least 2m5f - 4/4
- Course winner - 3/4
With only four previous runnings to go on, it would be wise not to go overboard on the trends, so I'm not too concerned that my selection, ON RAGLAN ROAD, falls down on two of them - no Cheltenham form and no first-two position in a graded race last time out, although he would have finished second to Cape Tribulation in the River Don Hurdle at Doncaster last time out had he stood up.
An expensive purchase (320,000gns) from Ireland after winning a point-to-point and a Punchestown bumper, he has yet to live up to his price tag. His only win over hurdles so far came against weak opposition on his debut at Hexham (for which he picked up a modest £2,945.93), but as that track is one of the stiffest in the country, we at least know he stays and he couldn't do much more than win by 38 lengths.
Connections then decided to drop him back to 2m4f for his next two starts (possibly to test his Ballymore credentials) and twice he was been found wanting, having to settle for the runner-up spot on both occasions. However, back up to 3m at Doncaster, he was in the process of running a much better race before his fall three out, which suggests he needs a really stiff stamina test, like he'll get here, to be competitive. At 20/1 NRNB with Boylesports, he makes plenty of each-way appeal.
Cape Tribulation (6/1 William Hill) will again be in opposition but he must have genuine soft ground to perform at his best, which is a worry as this race falls on the last day and the track tends to dry out through the week. Another worry is that he's yet to race on an undulating track like Cheltenham and his trainer, Malcom Jefferson, has gone on record as saying he doesn't think the place will suit him.
Pride of Dulcote's (9/2 Paddy Power) heavy fall here in November (his third in nine hurdle starts) and artificially short price (nearly all of Paul Nicholls' horses are overbet), make him one to swerve, while any value has surely been squeezed from the price of Bensalem (9/2 Coral). That said, there was a lot to like about the way he made Diamond Harry work hard in a Grade 1 over 2m5f at Cheltenham in January, although the winner may have been below his best that day.
Recommended Bet:
On Raglan Road 1pt each way @ 20/1 Boylesports NRNB