The question every jumps fan is asking themselves after Denman's recent defeat at Kempton is: can he still win the Gold Cup?
Case For:
Clearly, this wasn't the same horse that had bulldozed the opposition in last year's Gold Cup. However, he was entitled to need the run after an 11-month layoff, while the sticky ground and sharp right-handed track counted against him. Granted, he's won on his last three starts going right-handed, but they were back in his novice days against inferior opposition and his best performances have been going left-handed, so he'll be well-served by a return to Cheltenham.
Every horse has its off days and Denman's performance at Kempton was very similar to that of Kauto Star's in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree last season, looking lazy at times and not jumping well enough to overcome fitness doubts. I remember some shrewd judges writing Kauto Star off after that performance but he's since bounced back to win two King George's, so why not Denman?
Yes, he should have beaten Madison Du Berlais - who would have been getting 23lb in a handicap - at level weights, but it's quite possible that the winner has improved again since winning the Hennessy. His stablemate Tamarinbleu made giant strides when fitted with blinkers last season, and Madison Du Berlais seems to be thriving since being fitted with cheekpieces for the first time at Newbury. Take him out of the race and we'd be talking about Denman as an even money chance for the Gold Cup.
Case Against:
Regardless of his layoff and the fact he's better going left-handed, Denman should have done much better at Kempton and, on the evidence of that performance, he needs to improve around 40lb to win at Cheltenham. The writing was on the wall as early as the first fence, which he fiddled, and he never really got into a rhythm after that, finishing a lacklustre second. In the words of his owner Harry Findlay, it was "not a washout but it was not great either", and the worrying thing is that we cannot conclusively say that he's recovered from his heart problems.
His trainer Paul Nicholls was particularly candid when talking after the race suggesting that he might have reached a pinnacle for last year's Gold Cup and might not come back as good. Certainly, he wouldn't be the first Gold Cup winner not to come back the same the following year. Imperial Call and Master Oats are good recent examples as, like Denman, they looked like they were going to dominate the staying chase division for years after their Cheltenham victories.
The Verdict:
Plenty has been said already regarding Denman's Cheltenham prospects, but my take on it is - he won't win at Cheltenham and quite possibly never again.
Of course, as a dyed-in-the-wall jumps fan, I would love to see nothing more than him bounce back to form at Cheltenham, but great comebacks from injury are a lot rarer than we think and I fear that we may never see the same Denman again. For that reason, he can't possibly be recommended at the current 5/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) and the most appealing play is a place lay - currently 2.38 on Betfair.