How do this year's leading contenders conform to the top Gold Cup trends?
1. Six to 12 runs over fences - 10 winners in the last 10 runnings
Having run 20 and 19 times respectively over fences, Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer would be more experienced than any recent Gold Cup winner.
2. Two to four runs that season - 9/10
Denman's interrupted preparation due to a heart problem, which has confined him to one run beforehand (and a lacklustre one at that), is far from ideal.
3. Aged seven to nine - 9/10
Ten-year-old War Of Attrition would be the oldest winner since Cool Dawn in 1998.
4. 1st or 2nd in a Cheltenham race - 9/10
Neptune Collonges falls down on this count, although to his credit he did finish third in last year's Gold Cup. Levy Board Chase winner Madison Du Berlais has been to Cheltenham five times, finishing third twice.
5. Won or placed at the Festival - 9/10
Welsh National winner Notre Pere has never run at Cheltenham, never mind the Festival.
6. Previous Grade 1 winner - 9/10
Barber's Shop and Roll Along, first and third in a Sandown Graduation Chase in December, both lack a win in the highest grade over fences.
7. RPR (Racing Post Rating) of at least 170 - 8/10
According to the ratings, neither Air Force One (160) and Star de Mohaison (163) are good enough.
7. Won over at least 3m - 8/10
With Tidal Bay now re-routed to the Ryanair, it's safe to say that all this year's main contenders have shown the necessary stamina to win over the Gold Cup trip of 3m21/2f.
Conclusion:
Like last year, the Paul Nicholls-trained pair of Kauto Star (7/4 bet365) and Denman (5/1 Ladbrokes) dominate the ante post market. However, unlike last year, when both horses met all the above key trends, they both fall down on one count. Kauto Star is also bidding to become the first horse to win his Gold Cup crown back, while Denman needs to make giant strides from his comeback run and may not be the same force as 12 months ago. They both look beatable.
Exotic Dancer (12/1 Blue Square) is not perfect either but he does tick most of the above and has looked better than ever this season. In my mind, he had the measure of Neptunes Collonges (7/1 Paddy Power) in the Lexus Chase last time out before the grey came to grief, so why he is still available at nearly double the odds is unfathomable. If he wins the Irish Hennessy, as I expect him to, he might even be second favourite.
His stablemate Albertas Run (25/1 Ladbrokes) also scores heavily. Last year's RSA Chase winner (31UP1 record in this race) came back to his best when second in the King George, and six Gold Cup winners in the last 10 runnings contested that season's Boxing Day highlight, where they finished PP2111. He's a stone better on good ground, though, so there's no point backing him until we know what the ground conditions will be like.