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2007 Winner: Kauto Star; Trainer: Paul Nicholls; Age: 7; SP: 5/4f

Key trends:
The 90’s provided us with a few shock winners, but the class horses have shone through in more recent renewals, and a key stat is to look for horses rated 165 or higher as they provided six of the last 10 winners from just 14% of the runners. That’s not to say that a shock isn’t possible and if you fancy an upset look to back one that either won or finished second at a previous Festival, although that criteria only fits the main contenders - Kauto Star, Denman and Exotic Dancer - this year.

Second-season novices have won seven of the last 14 renewals which is a big positive for Denman (Knowhere also fits this bill), while the Royal & SunAlliance Chase has highlighted five Gold Cup winners the following season since 1980 including two that completed the double. Again, another positive for Denman.

Horses aged between seven and nine have won 13 of the last 14 renewals, although that trend doesn't really help us this year, as only the ten-year-olds Knowhere and Afistfullofdollars can be excluded on that score. It’s worth pointing out that the last four winners were aged seven, which might augur well for a shock as the three main protagonists are all aged eight, but I doubt it somehow.

The contenders (best current price):
The clash we’ve all been waiting for between Kauto Star (5/4 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes), who has been pretty much invincible in the last couple of seasons, only being beaten once in his last ten starts, and Denman (2/1 Ladbrokes), the wide-margin winner of last season’s Royal & SunAlliance and this season’s Hennessy. The betting very much suggests that this is a two horse race - as it might be - but we shouldn’t forget last year’s Gold Cup runner-up Exotic Dancer (12/1 VCbet), who came closest to beating his old rival Kauto Star at Haydock in November, beaten by half a length. However, a change in tactics failed to work in the King George and, after a missed prep run in January, he has questions to answer about his well-being.  Of the rest, Halcon Generlardais (16/1 Stan James), trained by the in-form Alan King, ran a cracker under top weight in the Welsh National when second to Miko de Beauchene and can’t be ruled out with any confidence. Knowhere (33/1 William Hill) beat Rynair winner Our Vic last time and could run into a place. Paul Nicholls is also represented by Neptunes Collonges (28/1 totesport) and Star De Mohaison (40/1 totesport) - what price a 1-2-3 for the trainer? Blue Square go 5/1.

The verdict:
The six million dollar question here is: "Should I back Kauto Star or Denman?". The answer is neither as they are not value at their current prices, although my opinion, for what it’s worth, is that Kauto Star is the classiest horse I've ever seen, - which includes the likes of Best Mate, Desert Orchid and Burrough Hill Lad - and his cruising speed and turn of foot is likely to prove too much for Denman. So, it’s Kauto for me but, if ever there was a race to be savoured without having a bet, it’s this one. Enjoy!

Betting advice:
BACK - Kauto Star (if you must have a bet) @ 5/4 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes
NO LAY

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