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2007 Winner: Andreas; Trainer: Paul Nicholls; Age: 7; Weight: 10st 11lb; SP: 12/1

Key trends:
One very strong trend here to take note of here. Only two horses aged 10 or older have made the frame in the last 10 runnings (from 36 runners), so you can safely put a line through anything from this age bracket. That would effectively rule out Tiger Cry, Hasty Prince and Greenhope from this year’s principal contenders.

This has been a great race for punters. Sent off the 12/1 joint-sixth favourite last year, Andreas was harder to find than the vast majority of Grand Annual winners, as 28 of the previous 32 winners went off no bigger than 10/1. Trainer Paul Nicholls has supplied the last four favourites, one of which has won, while Andreas was his perceived second-string 12 months ago when winning on his second attempt. Pay close attention to Nicholls’ runners, and those of Nicky Henderson (responsible for 2006 winner Greenhope), whose late father this race is named in honour.

The contenders (best current price):
At the top of weights, last year’s smooth winner Andreas (9/1 Paddy Power) is back for more, while at the opposite end My Petra (4/1 bet365) has gone up just 3lb for giving a Noland a scare at Sandown, and that has taken her to ante post favouritism. In between, Enlightenment (12/1 Boylesports) is an improving sort capable of better. The Irish are represented by Maralan (12/1 general) and Tiger Cry (12/1 William Hill), who lost out to Greenhope (20/1 Ladbrokes) in 2006. The latter comes into this race still on a 7lb higher mark despite not really shining in his five subsequent races in the past two years.

The verdict:
Nicky Henderson was worried that My Petra wouldn’t get into this race after she was raised just 3lb after finishing second to Noland, so he must be rubbing his hands now that she has crept in at the bottom of the handicap. A former useful hurdler, she could be even better over fences on what we’ve seen so far, and she has the look of a good thing off her low weight.

Betting advice:
BACK – My Petra 3pt @ 4/1 bet365
LAY – Tiger Cry – as a ten-year-old, the trends are strongly against him.

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