2007 Winner: L'Antartique; Trainer: Ferdy Murphy; Age: 7; Weight: 10st 11lb; SP: 20/1
Key trends:
Just three years to go on so trends are hard to come by. Still, the last three winners all won or had finished second last time out and all three were residing in the bottom half of the handicap, which might help to narrow down the field this year.
The contenders (best current price):
Paul Nicholls has kept Dear Villez (5/1 bet365) fresh for this race and, while he’s probably not the best handicapped horse in the field (set to carry 11st 1lb), he could still be improving (but he might need to be!). Nicholls is also represented by Big Buck’s (20/1 Blue Square), who carries top weight (Nick Schofield takes off a handy 7lb), and Arturio (9/1 Ladbrokes), who jumped brilliantly when winning on his debut for the yard in December – the recent rain will help his chances. Sue Smith doesn’t have many runners here, but her Mr Strachan (9/1 Skybet) doesn’t look out of place in this after showing up well against a series of notable rivals. The return to 2m5f is in is favour after he faded over 3m last time. The Irish are represented by Ambobo (9/1 general), Merry Cowboy and Finger Onthe Pulse (11/1 William Hill). The latter has some useful form to his name, including when runner-up to the smart but ill-fated Glencove Marina last time out.
The verdict:
I know Nicholls is sweet on the chances of Dear Villez - he was singled out as a ‘pigeon catcher’ in his Racing Post column on Saturday – but he’s now plenty short enough in the betting and I’m tempted by the double-figure quotes for Finger Onthe (no typo) Pulse. Some shrewd Irish judges are touting this one as their ‘banker’ of the meeting. I’m not so sure about that, but he does look thrown in here off 135 as he was rated 147 over hurdles. His form this winter is progressive with a capital ‘P’.
Betting Advice:
BACK – Finger Onthe Pulse 1pt each way @ 11/1 William Hill
NO LAY