2007 Winner: Oscar Park; Trainer: David Arbuthnot; Age: 8; Weight: 10st 9lb; SP: 14/1
Key trends:
With so many runners, this race is hard to trim down to a manageable list, but it could pay to focus on horses that have had a break of 30 days or more and last time out winners – eight of the past 14 winners were scoring off the back of a victory. The Irish usually manage to outperform their British counterparts –five winners since 192 from just a handful of runners. Age-wise, five-year-olds can be taken on with confidence (just one winner since 1974), which is no surprise when you consider that they are not yet physically mature enough to cope with a race of this nature.
The contenders (best current price):
Trainer Tony Martin knows how to get one ready for a Festival handicap and his Robin Du Bois (6/1 totesport) looks sure to go off favourite. He’s a likely winner too although, having fallen with a circuit to go in his qualifier at Haydock (pulled like a train that day), we have to take his stamina on trust. There are no such concerns over Miko De Beauchene (8/1 William Hill) who we know stays all day and is able to race off a mark 22lb lower than his chase rating. Backboard (8/1 general) has won decent handicaps on his last two starts, while Onnix (11/1 totesport), trained by Francois Doumen, who knows how to win races at this meeting, probably has more to offer than what he’s show us so far.
The verdict:
Endless possibilities here, but I keep coming back to Miko Du Beachene, who has a nice racing weight of 10st 8lb. True, he’d prefer a bit further but stamina is the prime requirement in a Pertemps winner (even more so this year on the rain-softened ground) and he has that in spades. He looks an each way steal.
Betting advice:
BACK – Miko Du Beauchene 1pt each way 8/1 William Hill
LAY (Betfair) – Robin Du Bois – stamina concerns and is priced up on trainer’s reputation