2007 Winner: Idole First; Trainer: Venetia Williams; Age: 8; Weight: 10st 7lb; SP: 12/1
Key trends:
It could pay to stick with those horses carrying less than 11st, which would account for 12 of the past 13 winners. Also, give plenty of respect to French-bred horses (have the suffix ‘FR’) as they’ve won of the past eight renewals and supplied the runner-up in the three seasons they missed out. With just one winner since 1951, we can take on the Irish, and don’t be afraid to back an outsider as 18 of the past 26 runnings have been won by a horse at a double-figure price.
The contenders (best current price):
There’s been plenty of market confidence in Don’t Push It (7/2 sportingbet), the mount of AP (McCoy), and if he is back from injury in the same form he showed last term, he has an excellent chance. Oedipe (12/1 Paddy Power) has been off the track even longer (444 days to be exact!) and is up 20lb for his runaway Kempton win, but he could still be ahead of the handicapper. Andy Turnell’s Bible Lord (7/1 William Hill) cut no ice in the Hennessy behind Denman, but this is more his trip. Paul Nicholls’ Gwanako (8/1 general) is 10lb better in over fences than hurdles, and could go well in a race where many have chances.
The verdict:
I’m particularly keen to take on the ante post favourite Don’t Push It as he hasn’t run for ages and carries near enough top weight. More recent form is preferred, and the provider is Bible Lord, who was back to form with a win last month after running over too far a trip for the early part of the season. He has long looked just the sort for this race and his trainer has been banging in the winners of late. Get on!
Betting advice:
BACK – Bible Lord 2pt @ 7/1 William Hill
LAY (Betfair) – Don’t Push It – for the above reasons