2007 Winner: Taranis; Trainer: Paul Nicholls; Age: 6; SP: 9/2
Key trends:
Not much to go on here with just the three renewals so far, but this race looks punter-friendly with seven of the nine win and place positions up for grabs going to horses in the first four in the market. French-breds have won the last two runnings. In fact, French-breds have a terrific record in chases at the Festival up to 2m5f - they took four of the last seven runnings of the old Cathcart Chase, which was opened up to allow horses outside of first and second-season novices to take part in 2004, when it was first run as the Ryanair. L’Antartique is the only French-bred in this year’s race. Paul Nicholls has supplied two winners so far and he relies on Turko.
The contenders (best current price):
Mossbank (3/1 Skybet) and Our Vic (7/2 general) are vying for favouritism and they are arguably the form horses in this year’s race. Mossbank split Denman and The Listener (4/1 general) at Leopardstown over Christmas and is very much on the up as a second season chaser, juts the type to win this race. Our Vic arguably ran a career-best when second to Kauto Star in the King George and went close in this race last year, but only after a prolonged flat spell mid-race saw him seemingly drop out of contention. L’Antartique (6/1 bet365) has won two big handicaps, including the Paddy Power over course and distance here, but will be without his regular pilot Graham Lee. Last season’s SunAlliance sixth Turko (8/1 Boylesports) showed real grit when second behind The Listener in the Irish Hennessy over 3m.
The verdict:
Mossbank’s form may flatter him, while L’Antartique may not be good enough - the form of his Paddy Power win hasn't worked at all. Our Vic is an odd horse in that 2m5f appears to be too short for him and yet he doesn't seem to stay 3m. On normal Cheltenham ground, he would probably get outpaced again, but the recent rain is very much in his favour and the fact that his stable is in great form swings it for me. Back him to go one better than last year.
Betting advice:
BACK - Our Vic 2pt @ 7/2 general
LAY (Betfair) - L’Antarique - has run two strange races in defeat and the form of his Paddy Power win is not working out.