Paul Nicholls is a best-priced 1/2 favourite* with VCbet to be the top trainer at this year’s Cheltenham Festival, and it’s easy to see why he’s such a short price. At present, he has 17 festival winners to his credit, which is some achievement considering that the first one came in 1999, and it would be a brave man to bet against him adding at least one to that tally this year. His team is headed of course by Kauto Star and Denman, but he has a host of other outstanding prospects:
Supreme Novice Hurdle (2m):
Rippling Ring - A group-placed flat horse in South Africa before joining Nicholls this season, and bolted up by six lengths in an ordinary Doncaster novice on his hurdling debut last month. Easy to pick holes in that form and would be a bigger price if he were not trained by Nicholls, but respected nevertheless.
Current best price: 8/1 VCbet
Pasco - The stable second-string but dangerous to discount on that score. Has won his last two and the more rain the better for him. Good each way chance.
Current best price: 20/1 totesport
The Arkle (2m):
Noland - Looked a natural over fences when winning on his debut at Folkestone, but didn’t impress when scrambling home at Sandown last month. However, would have needed that run according to his trainer and, crucially, he has previous Festival form in the book - game winner of the 2006 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The likely good to soft ground and fast pace of the Arkle will be perfect for him - massive chance.
Current best price: 5/2 bet365
Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f):
Breedsbreeze - A gutsy winner from leading Supreme Novices’ Hurdle hope Deep Purple in the Tolworth over 2m at Sandown last month and shapes as though this longer trip (2m5f) will suit, although on breeding there are slight worries on that score.
Current best price: 8/1 William Hill
SunAlliance Chase (3m ½f):
Silverburn - A full brother to Denman who won this race in 2007. Beaten in the Feltham over 3m (described as a "balls of a race" by Nicholls), but came good last time out when winning over 2m4f at Sandown. Looks to be coming to hand at just the right time and his superb jumping will stand him in good stead, so must have an excellent chance.
Current best price: 8/1 Ladbrokes
Champion Chase (2m):
Master Minded and Twist Magic: The trainer has a problem splitting these two and so do the bookmakers. Master Minded has improved enormously as the season has progressed, but his relative inexperience might just count against him. Twist Magic was well beaten at Ascot last time out, but he hated the soft ground and is more of a spring horse. Both have last year’s winner, Voy Por Ustedes, to beat.
Current best prices: 11/4 (William Hill) and 3/1 (Ladbrokes) respectively.
Ryanair Chase (2m 5f):
Turko - Ran a great race when second to The Listener in Ireland last time out and should be suited by this stiff 2m5f on decent ground. With the race expected to cut up he must have a good chance and is value at the current odds.
Current best price: 8/1 general
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (3m1½f):
Officier De Reserve - Won well at Newbury in December over 3m but then found Cheltenham’s 2m5f too sharp last time out. As he’s a real stayer, this trip will be ideal and, with top amateur Nick Schofield in the saddle, a big run is expected.
Current best price: 11/1 totesport
Triumph Hurdle (2m 1f)
Celestial Halo - Won like a good horse at Newbury on his hurdles debut so surprising to see him beat at Doncaster on his next start. However, trainer had "underdone him" and he’s sure to be spot on for this race. Chance on good to soft, but Alan King’s Franchoek is very much the one to beat.
Current best price: 11/2 general
Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2½f):
Kauto Star, Denman and Neptune Collongues - If ever there was a race to be savoured without having a bet, it’s this one. Slight preference is for Kauto Star, whose high cruising speed and turn of foot may prove decisive. Neptune Collongues put up a career best effort last time and could be worth backing in the "Without Kauto Star and Denman" market.
Current best prices: Evens (general), 13/8 (Ladbrokes) and 25/1 (general).
Nicholls’ other leading contenders include: Chapeauturgeon (Fred Winter), The Tother One (Coral Cup, Albert Bartlett), Arturio (Jewson), Gwanako (Racing Post Plate). Sportingbet have opened a book on how many Festival winners Nicholls will have with three or four winners priced at 3/1, two winners at 4/1 and five winners at 5/1. Other specials include Kauto Star and Denman to finish 1st and 2nd in either order at Evens with Paddy Power, while Boylesports go 6/1 that he trains the Gold Cup 1-2-3.
*Settled on the number of winners trained. If there is a tie for the number of winners, it will go down to the number of second places, if there is still a tie, the number of third places will be taken into account.