What are the current best-value bets - and worst - for this year's Arkle Trophy?
Best Value:
This looks a great race to have an ante post bet in as the two market leaders have unconvincing profiles, and the one who is crying out to be backed ante post is PLANET OF SOUND at 12/1 (bet365).
The horse has taken a bit of time to show his true form - only fourth on his debut at Sandown - but all three of his novice chase performances this season have featured a series of bold and attacking leaps, and the key to this race is often jumping. That might sound obvious but novices can win races with a poor jumping technique on certain tracks, but they rarely get away with it at Cheltenham when the pressure is on.
At Newbury last time, his jumping took him to the front a long way front home and, despite a bad error at the second-last (probably lost his concentration after being in front for so long), he absolutely cantered home. The second French Opera is no mug while Shatabdi, beaten 25 lengths into fourth, had run Kalahari King (a 10/1 chance for the Arkle) to two and a half lengths at Leicester last November, so the form looks good. And he should be even better the faster they go, so the Arkle is tailor-made for him.
What’s more, unlike some of his rivals, his chance is not dependant on the ground. Tatenen probably needs a bog-like conditions to win over this trip, while Kalahari King and I'msingingtheblues would be all at sea on soft ground. If it is soft, I can see Planet Of Sound going off second favourite and winning easily, while on good ground he'll be placed at the very least, so there is little downside in backing him now.
Click here to back Planet Of Sound.
Worst Value:
The two at the head of the current ante post market, Tatenen and Calgary Bay, are poor value and should be taken on. Tatenen is favourite on account of his impressive win over the Arkle course and distance at the Open meeting, and the fact that he is trained by Paul Nicholls, but his defeat at Leopardstown over Christmas - in receipt of 11lb from the winner Follow The Plan - suggests he's beatable. Nicholls may be right in saying he needs a stiffer test of stamina and should have been ridden more prominently, but what concerns me is the feeling that he needs really deep ground to be at his best. He's one to back on the day should conditions be testing.
The last three Arkle winners have been stayers so Calgary Bay, who won over 2m5f at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, has plenty going for him, but his chance seems dependant on Tony McCoy riding him (not a given at this stage), while it has to be a worry that he has finished second six times in his fledgeling career. And let's not forget, he was a big flop in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last year
Click here to lay Tatenen and Calgary Bay.