How do this year's leading contenders conform to the top Champion Hurdle trends?
1. Aged six to nine – 9 winners in the last 10 runnings
The exception was last year’s winner Katchit, who finally ended the losing run of five-year-olds in the Champion Hurdle since 1985. Backers of Binocular (this year’s leading five-year-old) will be hoping that wasn’t a one-off.
2. Won last time out – 9/10
There are still a few trials to be run but, apart from Binocular, very few of this year’s leading contenders will come into the race on the back of a win, including second favourite Osana.
3. Nine to 25 career runs over hurdles – 9/10
Again, Binocular falls down on this count, although he has been more actively campaigned than 2007 winner Sublimity. Celestial Halo, second favourite in some lists, has had just six runs over hurdles.
4. Won Grade 1 hurdle or Grade 3 handicap hurdle – 9/10
Both of the David Pipe runners, Osana and Ashkazar, fall down on this score.
5. RPR (Racing Post Rating) of at least 157 – 9/10
Strictly on their current ratings, Snap Tie (156) and Crack Away Jack (154) are not quite good enough.
6. Festival Winner – 9/10
Binocular as was only placed in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, although it’s unfair to crab him on that alone.
7. Won Grade 1 or 2 hurdle that season – 8/10
Time is running out for Osana, Celestial Halo, Crack Away Jack and Katchit with only one recognised trial, the Kingwell Hurdle, to be run.
Conclusion:
While Binocular falls down on three counts, he’s clearly good enough to win according to the form book and his hurdling has been electric this season, so he could easily buck all the trends, much like Sublimity did in 2007. However, the major difference is that Sublimity was a 16/1 shot (as big as 100/1 ante post), wheareas Binocular is currently trading around the even money mark and therefore can’t be considered value at that price.
Interestingly, Sublimity fits all the trends this time and he could be a shade overpriced at 16/1 (Stan James). No doubt, he'll be trading at considerably shorter coming down the Cheltenham hill, so he's one for back-to-lay punters.
Last year’s winner Katchit has been friendless in the market after some lacklustre efforts earlier in the season, but he scores highly and should he repeat his win in the Kingwell Hurdle he would go to post with a perfect profile. Given that seven of the last nine reigning champions at least made the frame in defence of their crown, Alan King’s battler rates a solid each-way bet at the current 14/1 (Ladbrokes).