Supreme Novices' Hurdle:
Here we go! The opening race of the eagerly anticipated festival and, for many people, it provides the bet of the meeting in Cousin Vinny. Last year's Champion Bumper winner has progressed rapidly over hurdles this season and would be chasing a four-timer here but for unseating his rider with a blunder at the last last time.
He must take all the beating but my money will be riding on TORPICHEN who looked a horse going places when thrashing Trenchant at Sandown. The runner-up has franked the form since and, getting the four-year-old allowance, he might just have too much toe for the favourite - but do back him with Paddy Power (who happen to go joint top price at 6/1) as they will refund your losing stake if Cousin Vinny wins.
Arkle Trophy:
My ante post pick Planet Of Sound has been declared (always half the battle), but heavy overnight rain would seriously dent his chances, so I'm switching allegiance to TARTAK (14/1 bet365 BOG). Trained by the massively in-form Tom George, he gives me the impression that a fast run race (which is assured) over 2m will be perfect for him and, with doubts over the market leaders, I think he has a serious chance.
William Hill Trophy:
This race normally goes to a progressive type carrying less than 11st - it's 11 years since the winner carried more than 10st 12lb. That said, nothing jumps out at me in that weight range so I'll take a chance on top weight STAR DE MOHAISON (10/1 Skybet). Paul Nicholls' runner travels and jumps like a dream and could have too much class for these, although he wouldn't want a lot of rain.
Champion Hurdle:
Binocular will be hard to beat but he might be vulnerable to a stronger finisher. Step forward WHITEOAK, whose recent reappearance gave the impression that she has improved again and could be every bit as good over 2m as she was over 2m4f last season. At 16/1, she's huge each way value with bet365 who go 1/4 odds, four places.
Cross Country Chase:
Not a race to get heavily involved (I can think of 25 races at the festival that I'd rather bet on!) so DIX VILLEZ is only a token selection. At this course in November, on only his second run in a 'bank's race, he beat Garde Champetre by three lengths and is only a 1lb worse off in the weights, yet he can be backed at 8/1 (William Hill) - over twice the odds of Garde Champetre!
David Nicholson Mares' Only Race:
With Whiteoak running in the Champion Hurdle instead, the way is clear for the progressive QUEVEGA (11/4 Coral). She's won six of her last eight starts but her best piece of form came in defeat when third in a Grade 1 hurdle at Auteuil against males. Won her prep race in good style and her bullish connections feel that this trip will play to her strengths.
Selections:
Torpichen (with Paddy Power's 'Our Cousin Vinny' concession)
Tartak - NEXT BEST
Star De Mohaison
Whiteoak (each way with bet365, 1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4)
Dix Villez
Quevega - NAP OF THE DAY