Key Trends:
- Trained in Ireland - four winners in the last four runnings
- Won one of its last two starts - 4/4
- Winner of a cross-country chase at either Cheltenham or Punchestown (the last three had won the PP Hogan Memorial Chase in February) - 4/4
- Won over at least three miles - 4/4
- Aged between nine and 12 - 4/4
They say there are only two certainties in life, death and taxes, but you can add 'the Irish winning the Cross Country Chase' to that list, and it's almost certain that Irish 'banks' legend Enda Bolger will win it, as he has done for three of the past four years. I say 'almost'.
Bolger's Spotthedifference was a standing dish around the course, winning this race in 2005, and stablemate Garde Champetre (7/2 general) has ably filled the void left by that one's retirement, running out an impressive 10 length winner in 2008. He's a whopping 21lb higher in the weights this year - but he deserves to be. After his festival success, he followed up in great style at Punchestown (another 'bank's race) and looked as good as ever when beating stablemate L'Ami a length and a quarter in the handicap chase over this course and distance in December.
L'Ami (3/1 bet365), you may remember, was a high-class in his heyday and was beaten under 13 lengths in both the 2006 and 2007 Gold Cups. Since being switched to cross-country racing, he's found a new lease of life and had his confidence boosted when winning the PP Hogan last time out against modest opposition. He's 1lb better off with Garde Champetre here for their running in December, so they are handicapped to dead-heat.
With Drombeag (14/1 Paddy Power), Freneys Well (16/1 Skybet) and 2007 winner Head Onthe Ground (33/1 Stan James) as back-up, Bolger has a very strong hand, but the fly in the ointment could be DIX VILLEZ (13/2 William Hill), who beat Garde Champetre by three lengths in the cross-country event here in November. He's only 1lb worse off in the weights for that win and his trainer Paul Nolan remains in cracking form, so he's the value bet for me at 13/2 (William Hill).
Recommended Bet:
Dix Villez 1pt @ 13/2 William Hill