2007 Winner: Gaspara; Trainer: David Pipe; Age: 4; Weight: 10st 11lb; SP: 9/2jf
Key trends:
Another new race with just three renewals to go on, but a clear pattern is already emerging. All three winners have come from the top half of the handicap, which suggests that class will shine through. In fact, even the top weights have been running well, making the frame on two occasions. That being said, you are still essentially looking for an unexposed type, and it should be no surprise that two of the three winners had had just three runs, the minimum required for a handicap mark.
Two trainers to note are David Pipe, who supplied the winner and third in his debut season and is responsible for this year’s favourite Ashkazar, and Gary Moore, who has managed two placings from his three runners so far - Harry Tricker will represent him this year.
The contenders (best current price):
Two ex-French horses dominate the betting and may well dominate the finish too. Ashkazar (11/4 Ladbrokes) fairly bolted up in Saturday’s Imperial Cup and is able to take his chance without a penalty as top weight. Should he win, he will pick up a £75k bonus put up by the race sponsors and emulate his stablemate Gaspara who did the ‘double’ last year. River Liane (4/1 totesport) is another horse apparently miles ahead of the handicapper after picking up a mere 4lb penalty for winning a non-handicap with huge ease on his Irish debut. He is one of an eight-strong Irish raiding party, which also includes Dermot Weld’s Prince Erik (11/1 William Hill), the mount of Tony McCoy. Paul Nicholls' Chapoturgeon (14/1 sportingbet) has the assistance of Ruby Walsh, while recent Sandown winner Crack Away Jack (12/1 Ladbrokes) will represent Emma Lavelle. French raider Grand Schlem (12/1 Blue Square) will definitely have his supporters as his second to experienced older novice Pigeon Island was a cracking effort.
The verdict:
It is hard to see past the front two in the betting and, while there is plenty of confidence behind River Liane, preference is for Ashkazar, who has already proved he can do it in a big-field handicap and in some style too. The way he made every yard of the running and sealed his three-and-a-quarter length victory with extravagant leaps at the last two hurdles was a joy to behold, and top weight is unlikely to stop him going in again. River Liane is clear second best, but for an each way punt at bigger odds, try recent Plumpton winner Harry Tricker, who is trained by the underrated Gary Moore.
Betting advice:
BACK - Ashkazar 3pt @ 11/4 Ladbrokes / Harry Tricker 1pt each way @ 16/1 Paddy Power
NO LAY