How do this year's leading contenders conform to the top Supreme Novices' Hurdle trends?
1. Won at least half of hurdle starts - 10 winners in last 10 runnings
2. Pre-race RPR (Racing Post Rating) of at least 132 - 9/10
Clearly, this is not a race to back a 'dark' horse.
3. Ran within last 45 days - 9/10
Hurricane Fly has been off the track since winning at Leoprardstown over Christmas
4. Won last time out - 9/10
Cousin Vinny unseated his rider last time in the Deloitte Hurdle, but would have won had he stayed on his feet after jumping the last.
5. Aged five to six - 7/10
The four-year-old Torpichen would be the youngest winner since Hors La Loi III in 1999, although not many have tried in that time and, like Hors La Loi III, he's trained by Team Pipe.
Conclusion:
There are some strong trends for punters to latch on to - notably winning form last time out, a high percentage of wins to runs (at least 50%) and a pre-race RPR of at least 132. Unfortunately, a large number of this year's entries qualify, although it might pay to concentrate on the Irish challenge.
Runners from the Emerald Isle have a great record in this race - seven winners and six places from 68 runners in the last 10 runnings. They also won it nine times in the previous 20 years, so clearly this is a race the Irish target their best novices at - but which of their runners fits the trends best?
Willie Mullins has the strongest hand: Cousin Vinny (5/1 Ladbrokes), Hurricane Fly (4/1 Blue Square), Kempes and Mikhael D'Haguenet (16/1 totesport) all have strong claims. The latter is much more likely to run in the 2m5f race, though, and he may be joined by Cousin Vinny, depending on whether stablemate Hurricane Fly is given the green light to run. That one recently suffered a splint injury, which isn't ideal so close to the festival, although he'd be a worthy favourite should he line up.
However, given those facts, it's hard to recommend backing him (or Cousin Vinny for that matter) just yet, and the one to concentrate on is Kempes, who scores well on the above trends - six-year-old, two from two over hurdles, winner last time out, RPR of 139, in action as recently as 24th January. Granted, on the evidence of his form so far, he has a bit of improvement to find to win a Supreme, but no-one would doubt his potential, and his breeding suggests that he's going to be even better when he encounters better ground.
At 25/1 with Sportingbet, he looks to have slipped under the radar and it woudn't be the first time in this race that the shortest-priced Irish runner was beaten by a longer-priced compatriot.