2007 Winner: Ebaziyan; Trainer: Willie Mullins; Age: 6; SP: 40/1
Key trends:
The festival opener has been the preserve of the Irish; they have supplied the winner six times in the last nine years, It used to be the case of opposing the Irish-trained favourite, but that has gone out of the window recently as three of the last four have gone in - anyone’s guess who will go off favourite this year?
On the age front, 30 of the last 33 winners have been aged five of six, which would count against seven-year-old Captain Cee Bee. The favourite or second favourite has won six of the last 11 renewals, while the successful longshots have tended to be decent ex-flat horses. Somewhat surprisingly, lightly raced horses (no more than a couple of hurdle starts) have won seven of the last 15 renewals, which is a significant percentage when you consider that they are heavily outnumbered.
The contenders (best current price):
Once again, the Irish have a strong hand with Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle 1-2 Muirhead (8/1 Skybet) and Cork All Star (10/1 VCbet), impressive Punchestown winner Captain Cee Bee (8/1 Stan James), and the former smart bumper horse Fiveforthree (11/1 Sportingbet) all prominent in the betting. The home challenge is led by Nicky Henderson’s pair of Kyber Kim (7/1 general) and Sentry Duty (10/1 general), although the latter also holds an engagement in the 2m5f race. Pigeon Island (11/1 bet365) has an exposed look, but he has improved with every run and it would be folly to discount him. The Paul Nicholls duo of Rippling Ring (8/1 Paddy Power) and Pasco (20/1 William Hill) are others with chances in a wide open curtain raiser.
The verdict:
There isn’t a standout Irish horse, although slight preference is for Fiveforthree who would benefit most from any softening of the ground (rain forecast). Kyber Kim looked good on his debut at Newbury, but he has plenty to prove after running poorly at Doncaster on his next start. Rippling Ring represents the champion trainer, but he’s plenty short in the betting and preference is for Nicholls’ other runner Pasco, who is 2-2 over hurdles and over twice the odds. The more cut in the ground, the better he will run.
Betting advice:
BACK - Pasco 1pt each way @ 20/1 William Hill
LAY (Betfair) - Captain Cee Bee and Deep Purple - rain could scupper their chances