Key Trends:
- Aged seven to 10 - 10 winners in the last 10 runnings
- In the handicap - 10/10
- Won over at least 3m - 9/10
- Carried no more than 10st 12lb - 9/10
- SP between 11/2 and 10/1 - 8/10
- Five to 11 runs over fences - 7/10
- Ran no more than four times that season - 7/10
- Top-four finish last time out - 7/10
This has been one of my favourite races as the winner is usually quite easy to spot using the above trends, although it should be pointed out that, incredibly, there has been only one winning favourite (Antonin 1994) in the past 25 years.
This year, the poisoned chalice of favouritism is likely to be carried by Wichita Lineman (6/1 general), who has been well-backed in recent days after being switched from the 4m race. However, I'm not sure that's such a shrewd move as Wichita Lineman, while potentially well-treated on a 14lb lower mark than his current hurdles rating, has looked a bit on the 'slow' side in his three novice chases this season, albeit winning two of them, and the four miler would have surely have suited him better.
I'm therefore keen to take him on and the two I'm drawn too are the Paul Nicholls-trained pair, STAR DE MOHAISON and My Will with slight preference for the former. As they are both set to carry over 11st, they will have to buck the weight trend to win, but Star Du Mohaison is still in the Gold Cup and would not be without a chance in that Grade 1, so you've got to fancy him to go close in this handicap, even off top weight. I also like the fact he has previous at the festival, having runaway with the SunAlliance Chase three years ago, and he has looked as good as ever on his two starts over fences at Cheltenham this season. At 12/1 with bet365 (non-runner-no-bet), he's cracking value.
MY WILL (14/1 Stan James NRNB) made a pleasing return from injury when fiith in the Hennessy, the form of which is working well, and is 2lb lower here. His long term objective is the Grand National, but he'll be primed for this and goes on any ground.
Of the rest, Millenium Royal (12/1 Victor Chandler) stays well and looked smart when winning at Plumpton last time, and is in a similar mould to Kelami, who won this race for the stable in 2005. He's best with plenty of cut in the ground, though, which seems increasingly unlikely.
Possol (8/1 general) was a close third in last season's Jewson but there is just a slight question mark about the trip on this track, while Patsy Hall (14/1 Sportingbet) was fourth last year and should go well again without being good enough to win.
Recommended Bets:
Star De Mohaison 1pt @ 12/1 bet365 NRNB
My Will 1pt @ 14/1 Stan James NRNB