My view on this race is that it will be won by either Forpadydeplasterer or Group Captain. Aigle D’Or’s form was franked when Hold Em won last week but I am not sure he will grind it out as well as my two fancies plus he has three negative trends against him as Henderson is 0-17 in the race and just had one finish better than tenth since 1990, he has only run twice over hurdles in a race where experienced novices do well and he is an ex-Flat horse and this traditionally goes to ex bumper horses.
I attended Alan King’s open day last week and he all but confirmed Group Captain would run here as expected over the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Group Captain is also from the Flat which would be a slight statistical downer but he’s tough and proven in big handicaps so not being a NH bred wouldn’t concern me about him. However, what passed under the radar was that he was also keen on Sir Harry Ormesher who he had not long picked up from Chris Down’s stable and he has since won well at long odds-on at Warwick.
Hold Em won a terrific little novices’ hurdle last week at Huntingdon beating Junior and Lightning Strike and the third interests me most as the second may be Coral Cup bound and Venetia Williams’ Grade 2 winner was giving 8lbs to the winner and went down by just over a length. Lightning Strike is a tough horse who should not be ruled out of each-way calculations if this race is the plan.
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