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Aigle D’Or is favourite across the board for the 2m5f novice hurdle at the Festival, but I'd be concerned about his lack of experience for a race of this nature and he looks a jolly to take on.

Over the last 20 years, every winner of this race bar one (Galileo in 2002) had made their first start over jumps by the end of November. Aigle D’or had his first start over jumps in January, and it can’t have taught him much because the race was run at a crawl in the early stages and turned into a sprint up the home straight. You could see it was all happening a bit quick for him and he ended up ploughing through the last and losing momentum, although to his credit he did pick up again to pull clear and win the race. I’m not saying he can’t win at Cheltenham, but he is going to find it extremely difficult against more experienced rivals and his current odds of around 5/1 look on the mean side.

Two other market leaders I’m not keen on either are Forpadydeplasterer and Breedsbreeze. Both bring Grade 1 form to the table but there is a strong suspicion that they need soft ground in order to be fully effective and it wouldn’t be hard to imagine others having a bit more toe up the hill if the ground were riding on the good side (as it  usually is at the Festival). At single figure odds, they don’t represent any value.

The Tother One looks a great alternative at a double-figure price - 12/1 with Boylesports and Ladbrokes. Unbeaten in four starts over hurdles, the Paul Nicholls-trained gelding began his sequence in novice company back in November after which he was given a very lenient handicap mark of 105. He took advantage of that when a wide-margin winner of a 2m5f handicap at Newbury on his next start and then followed up under a penalty six days later. After that, his trainer gave him a short break before bringing him back for another easy victory in a competitive handicap hurdle at Sandown this month.

Okay, he’ll be stepping up to graded company at Cheltenham but his experience will stand him in good stead for the hurly burly of the Ballymore. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was challenging for favouritism nearer raceday so get on.

Recommended Bet:

The Tother One 1pt each way @ 12/1 Boylesports, Ladbrokes

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