How do this year's leading contenders conform to the top Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle trends?
1. RPR (Racing Post Rating) of at least 145 - 10 winners from the last 10 runnings
All of this year's principals have reached the required standard.
2. First or second last time out - 9/10
A clear message here; don’t go looking for a horse to find plenty of improvement from its last start.
3. First or second all completed hurdle starts - 9/10
Wendel has won three of his four starts but could only finish third on his other start.
4. Aged five to six - 9/10
This trend doesn't bode well for the David Pipe-trained four-year-olds, Torpichen and Mr Thriller, although they have alternative engagements.
5. Won at least half of hurdle runs - 9/10
On Raglan Road has won just one of his four starts over hurdles, while Pause And Clause is one out of three.
6. Scored over at least 2m4f - 9/10
Neither Cousin Vinny or Hurricane Fly have won beyond 2m2f.
Conclusion:
Trends punters will be looking to back a five or six-year-old hurdler with a high success rate and winning form over at least 2m4f. Step forward the current ante post favourite Diamond Harry (4/1 Paddy Power) who has impeccable claims (six from six) and, unlike some of his market rivals, he doesn't have an alternative engagement at the Festival. He does have two stats to overcome, though. This used to be a good race for favourites, but the last seven have been beaten, while the last eleven winners of the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle have been turned over.
Of the Willie Mullins-trained trio, Mikael D'Haguenet (7/1 Sportingbet) is much preferred over Cousin Vinny (6/1 Stan James) and Hurricane Fly (12/1 Totesport) as he's won over 2m4f (twice). Besides, the other two are much more likely to run in the Supreme Novices'. However, Mullins has suggested that Mikael D'Haguenet won't be coming to Cheltenham unless it was soft, so we can wait until bookmakers go non-runner-no-bet before backing him.
Karabak (6/1 Ladbrokes, Coral) has won twice over Ascot's 2m31/2f trip, but there's no reason to doubt his stamina and, barring accidents, he's sure to run, so he's the safest option at present for those punters looking to take on Diamond Harry and the Mullins battalion. He's held on Ascot form by Mad Max (10/1 Totesport), but only has a length to make up and has gone from strength to strength since.
As all but two of the last 23 winners have come from the first six in the betting, it's hard to enthuse about anything else, although Wendel (25/1 Sportingbet) is interesting at a a big price.