How do this year's leading contenders conform to the top Champion Chase trends?
1. Won over at least 2m11/2f - 10 winners in the last 10 runnings
Twist Magic and Well Chief are yet to win beyond 2m1f during their illustrious careers. That said, stamina is unlikely to be an issue for either.
2. At least eight chase runs - 9/10
Nicky Henderson's French-import Petit Robin lack the requisite experience having had just three chase starts in this country and only five overall.
3. Course Winner - 8/10
Black marks for both Big Zeb and Petit Robin on this score. On the other hand, Voy Por Ustedes runs his best races at Cheltenham, but it's anyone's guess which race he'll run in at this stage..
4. RPR (Racing Post Rating) of at least 167 - 8/10
Not many qualifiers here. Master Minded (187) is miles clear in the ratings, with only Voy Por Ustedes (180) and Tamarinbleu (169) coming close. Arkle winner Tidal Bay has a rating of 172 but is more likely to run in the Ryanair.
5. Won graded chase last time out - 8/10
Unless Big Zeb wins his prep in Ireland, Master Minded would be the only qualifier on this count.
6. Grade 1 chase winner - 7/10
As good as they are, Tamarinbleu and Petit Robin have yet to win at the highest level over fences.
Conclusion:
It will come as no surprise to learn that red-hot favourite Master Minded (2/5 Coral, Ladbrokes) scores a perfect six out of six, and the only statistics he has to overcome are the poor recent record of returning Champion Chase heroes and the record of Tingle Creek winners.
The last winner to retain his title was Viking Flagship in 1995, since when seven have tried and failed. However, go back a little further, and the roll of honour is littered with repeat winners - Barnbrook Again, Pearlyman, Badsworth Boy (three straight) and Moscow Flyer, who would have won three straight but for falling in 2004. Surprisingly, Tingle Creek winners have struggled, with four turned over in the past decade (two successful).
Can anyone give Master Minded a race? Well, Voy Por Ustedes is the best qualified (five out of six) but connections are considering him for the Ryanair (2m5f). The previous year's Arkle winner always fares well (form figures of 231121) so Tidal Bay would be interesting, but he too is doubtful. Neither Big Zeb (12/1 Paddy Power) or Petit Robin (14/1 Boylesports) satisfy many of the trends but they can at least be considered progressive.
Perhaps the injury-prone Well Chief can roll back the years? He does have Grade 1 form at Cheltenham and his current price of 25/1 (Victor Chandler) would look massive if turning up in anything like peak form. I'd want to see him walk into the paddock before backing him, though.