2007 Winner: Burntoakboy; Trainer: Dr Richard Newland; Age: 9; Weight: 9st 12lb; SP: 10/1
Key trends:
In a race where the field is invariably close to 30 runners, the use of key trends will help to narrow down the field. Age and weight is fairly irrelevant, so we should concentrate on horses that have had a relatively light campaign as seven of the last 12 winners having run no more than three times that season. Also, it is just about the only race at the Festival where a big run last time out is irrelevant as this is the day that really matters - that’s backed up by the fact that four of the last nine winners failed to place last time out. The Irish have a good record, winning five renewals of this race (from 13 runnings) and, while they were scuppered by Burntoakboy last year, they still managed to finish second, third and fifth.
The contenders (best current price):
Leg Spinner (4/1 general), trained by Tony Martin, who landed a massive gamble with Xenothon in the 2003 renewal of this race, has had this race as his target all winter and looks sure to go off favourite, although he wouldn’t want the ground too soft. The softer the better for the lightly-raced Naiad Du Misselot (12/1 Paddy Power), whose trainer Ferdy Murphy has no mean festival record. Kicks For Free (12/1 general) bounced back to his very best when giving weight and a beating to all in a handicap hurdle at Kempton last month, but is now 10lb higher and shoulders top weight here. Song Of Songs (10/1 Boylesports) finished second to Champion Hurdle second Osana on his hurdling debut last winter and has done nothing wrong since, while County Zen (12/1 BetDirect) brings rock solid handicap form to the table having run a blinder to finish third behind Wingman in last month’s Totesport Trophy. Osana’s trainer David Pipe runs four, the best of which looks to be Pablo Du Charmil (14/1 general), the mount of stable jockey Tom Scudamore.
The verdict:
No current trainer has a reputation like that of Tony Martin for winning major handicaps and landing a right touch in the process, and you can bet your bottom dollar that he’s had this race in mind for Leg Spinner for some time. There’s no doubt he can do it, but the recent rain is against him and he looks way too short now at around 4/1 - could be a drifter on the day. There are plenty of alternatives to choose from but the one I keep going back to is Naiad Du Misselot, who stormed clear when last seen on a racecourse back in December over this trip. His trainer can also get one ready for a big handicap - witness Joes Edge and L’Antartique last year.
Betting advice:
BACK - Naiad Du Misselot 1pt each way @ 12/1 Paddy Power
LAY (Betfair) - Leg Spinner (at no bigger than 6) - would have preferred faster ground and is priced on trainer’s reputation.