Key Trends:
- Ran at least three times over fences - 10 winners in the last 10 runnings
- Finished first or second in a chase over at least 3m - 9/10
- Top-four finish last time out - 9/10
- Aged seven to nine - 9/10
- Finished first or second on either or both last two starts - 8/10
- Had won over at least 3m (hurdles or chases) - 7/10
This is Jonjo O'Neil's best race by far at the festival with five victories since 1995. The problem for punters is that two of them were returned at 25/1 and 33/1, while more fancied runners at 8/1 and 12/1 were beaten.
That has to be a slight concern for prospective backers of O'Neil's No.1 hope Can't Buy Time (5/1 general), who has been well-backed for this race since being switched from the William Hill Trophy. That said, he has plenty going for him as he jumps soundly in the main and is one of the highest-rated entries. What we don't know is whether he'll stay this 4m trip, although he certainly wasn't stopping when forging clear of Eric's Charm over 3m at Sandown last time.
He may well win, I'd rather back one at a bigger price and TANK TOP is the suggestion in the hope that he makes the cut. As it stands, he needs plenty of higher-rated horses to come out but we can back him at 40/1 (Victor Chandler) with the safeguard of non-runner-no-bet, which punters simply must take advantage of. If he does get in, there's no way he'll be 40/1.
He's one of the few in the race to have form over 4m having run an excellent second to Jass over that trip at Doncaster last time. However, the main reason for backing him is the form of his trainer Tom George, whose horses are running out of their skins right now and are worth backing blind. George, a dab hand with staying chasers, went close in the 1999 renewal with Riot Leader, so we can expect a big run.
The other one to back now is PARSONS PISTOL (14/1 Skybet NRNB), who looks best of the Irish challenge. He has some strong form over shorter trips this season but I get the impression he'll be even better over marathon distances and on better ground than what he's been racing on in Ireland. I can't see see him being out of the frame and, unlike Tank Top, he's sure to make the cut.
As for the rest, Niche Market (6/1 William Hill) was a staying-on fourth in this race last year, while Tricky Trickster (16/1 bet365) could come into his own over this trip - if only his stable were in better form. Coe (10/1 Sportingbet) and Forest Leaves (10/1 Ladbrokes) are others to consider.
Recommended Bets:
Tank Top 1pt each way @ 40/1 Victor Chandler NRNB
Parsons Pistol 1pt each way 14/1 Skybet NRNB