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2007 Winner: Denman; Trainer: Paul Nicholls; Age: 7; SP: 6/5f

Key trends:
While Denman’s victory last year had bookmaker queues stretching back to Cheltenham town centre, his win went very much against the grain. He became the first winning favourite since Florida Pearl in 1998, although horses hunting up the favourite have a decent record, with second, third and fourth favourites winning on nine occasions in the last 14 renewals.

This might seem like obvious advice, but your selection must have arrived here on the back of a strong performance last time out - 30 of the last 33 winners finished no worse than second last time out. On the same basis, you can safely oppose anything than fell on its last outing. On the age front, stick to those aged seven or eight (won 11 of the last 13 renewals), as they are likely to outstay their younger rivals.

Interestingly, the Berkshire Novices’ Chase at Newbury has thrown up three of the last seven Royal & SunAlliance winners, which is a positive for Silverburn and Air Force One, second and third in this year’s renewal (the winner Hobbs Hill misses Cheltenham). On the other hand, Reynoldstown winners have a terrible record, which must be a worry for backers of Albertas Run.

The contenders (best current price):
The betting is headed by Reynoldstown Chase first and second Albertas Run (11/2 Boylesports) and Air Force One (5/1 William Hill) and, while the race has been a poor guide in recent years, they seem sure to go well. Paul Nicholls runs Silverburn (7/1 Skybet) and, although he doesn‘t possess the same ability as his brother Denman, he did look to be coming to hand when winning over 2m4f at Sandown last time out. No mare has won this race since 1981 but not many good ones have tried and the Irish-trained Pomme Tiepy (8/1 Boylesports) is one with a shout, while Starzaan (10/1 Paddy Power) jumped well when winning last time out, although his old form points to shortcomings when raised to 3m. Joe Lively (12/1 general) has taken a real shine to Cheltenham and the form of his wide margin win was boosted when the runner-up won at Newbury.

The verdict:
Having previously tipped up Air Force One ante post at 8/1, I’m not going to desert him now. Quite simply, he jumps well, stays forever, and has form at the festival -a staying on second to Wichita Lineman in the Brit Insurance a year ago. The only thing that can be said against him is that he might not be classy enough, but this race is not always won by the classiest horse in the race, rather one with dour staying powers and Air Force One has that in spades.  I’m not convinced Albertas Run will jump round Cheltenham, while Silverburn has stamina issues. The five-year-old Pomme Tiepy is too young for this.

BACK - Air Force One 2pt @ 5/1 William Hill
LAY (Betfair) - Albertas Run - jumping a concern

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