With the National Hunt season now in full swing, this is a good time to look ahead to the four feature races at the Cheltenham Festival, and here I'll be concentrating on the Gold Cup.

At the time of writing, the Paul Nicholls-trained Denman is trading as the general 11/8 favourite, although there is plenty of 6/4 available (Ladbrokes, Chandler), and sportingbet are out on a limb at 13/8. However, only a fool would want to back him at that price as the champion is not likely to make it back to the track until the Aon Chase in February at the very earliest, and it's hard to imagine his price shortening in the meantime, unless something serious happens to his stablemate Kauto Star - last year's runner-up and current second favourite at 3/1 (Stan James).

At this stage, he is again likely to pose the biggest threat to Denman in March, but having watched the re-run of last year's race on several occasions, it's almost impossible to envisage a turnaround in form if Denman returns in the same shape, and no true jumping fan would wish for anything other than a full recovery for last year's champion. However, the bombshell over his irregular heartbeat must weigh heavily on punter's minds and, with Denman taking such a large chunk out of the market, the temptation is to find one at a juicy each way price.

That's easier said than done though. Neptunes Collonges completed a famous 1-2-3 for Nicholls back in March and he went on to land his second successive Guineas Gold Cup at Punchestown. The problem is he too is unlikely to be seen out until well into the New Year, and his current price of 9/1 (William Hill) doesn't have much scope to shorten in the meantime. Besides, I'm not totally convinced that Cheltenham is his track.

Tidal Bay is the first non-Nicholls horse in the betting at around 14/1 (20/1 totesport), but he's yet to race beyond 2m5f and, although he's very exciting, his stamina has yet to be proven. Certainly, he did look short of speed when winning the Arkle last season, and while he should get an easy 3m around Kempton, it's hard to see him being effective over the Gold Cup trip of 3m2f. The Ryanair over 2m5f looks the ideal race for him.

Two second-season chasers who should have no trouble staying are Albertas Run (25/1 Coral) and Air Force One (33/1 Skybet), first and second in last year's Reynoldstown at Ascot in February. They later contested the SunAlliance Chase at Cheltenham in which Albertas Run, jumping more fluently than in previous races, ran out a comfortable winner, while Air Force One disappointed in fifth on what was unsuitable soft ground. If they continue to progress, both can be leading players come March, but realistically would need to improve in the region of two stone to win.

At his very best, Exotic Dancer wouldn't have to improve much to trouble the likes of Denman and co, and he might have slipped under the bookies' radar at 33/1 (bet365). True, he didn't run up to form in last year's Gold Cup or behind Our Vic and Kauto Star at Aintree, but he must have been close to a personal-best when second off a mark of 172 at Aintree in October, suggesting that he was over whatever was troubling him last season. If he can reproduce that sort of form throughout the season, he's going to be once again a major player in all the big chases this winter.

Verdict:
Considering his problems and delayed return to the track, Denman is a big no-no for ante post purposes. Finding one to beat him, however, is no easy task, although Exotic Dancer, still only an eight-year-old, appeals as the one most likely to shorten during the month's ahead.

Recommended Bets:

Exotic Dancer 1pt each way @ 33/1 bet365
Exotic Dancer (without Nicholls' runners) 1pt @ 6/1 William Hill

With the National Hunt season now in full swing, this is a good time to look ahead to the four feature races at the Cheltenham Festival, starting with the Champion Hurdle.

Let's begin with last year's winner, Katchit, who is trading at a standout 10/1 with Ladbrokes for a repeat. You may remember, last year's Champion Hurdle was run in bizarre weather conditions, and it was a triumph of grit over class that saw Katchit become the first five-year-old to win the race since See You Then in 1995. Take nothing away from Alan King's hurdler, who is as gutsy as they come, but I can't help thinking that, barring similar conditions in March, something will come through and beat him. Of course, he has a great Cheltenham record in his favour (five from six), but there are some nice novices from last season circling overhead, including Binocular, who has leap-frogged him in the betting despite not being seen out this season.

Nicky Henderson's Aintree winner will have to match the exploits of Katchit by defying the atrocious record of five-year-olds in the race, but the way he slammed Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo at the Liverpool track without barely coming of the bridle was very impressive. Before that, he had acquitted himself well in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, travelling like the winner at one stage, and he looks sure to be a major player in this season's big 2m contests, although whether he's a value bet at the general 6/1 is a different matter.

The Emma Lavelle-trained Crack Away Jack was no match for Binocular at Ascot last January, but he is unbeaten since, including when running away at the last to beat David Pipe's Imperial Cup winner Ashkazar in the Fred Winter Hurdle. He needs to improve again to trouble the big guns, but he is progressing the right way judging by his smooth success at Chepstow last month, although his current price of 7/1 (Paddy Power) doesn't give much scope for contraction between now and March. On the other hand, Ashkazar could represent some value at 16/1 (bet365, Chandler) as he was trying to give 2lb to Emma Lavelle's horse at Cheltenham, so wherever that one finishes he ought to finish upsides.

The Irish have a terrific record in the Champion Hurdle and Sizing Europe looks their best hope at this stage. After easily disposing of dual Champion Hardy Eustace in the AIG Europe Champion Hurdle in January, Sizing Europe was sent off the 2/1 market leader in March, but suffered an injury in the race and was pulled up on the run in. If he returns to his best, the current 7/1 (Stan James) would be a huge price, and he's already proved his well-being by finishing runner up to old adversary Hardy Eustace at Punchestown on Sunday, with Jered (12/1 Blue Square) beaten five lengths into third.

Last year's second and third, Osana and Punjabi are next in the betting at 12/1 (Skybet) and 16/1 (Paddy Power) respectively. Osana produced a stunning display of front running to beat Katchit (giving 4lb) by eight lengths in the International last December, and nearly repeated the trick in the big one on level terms, only failing by a length. Lightly raced, there should be plenty more improvement to come. Likewise Punjabi, who finished off last season by winning a Grade 1 at Punchestown, where he had Sublimity (16/1 BetDirect) in second, and he's won twice on the flat since. He looks an ideal type for the Christmas Hurdle as Kempton's flat terrain will suit him ideally.

Of the rest, Snap Tie (20/1 sportingbet) still has a bit to prove and we shouldn't read too much into his recent defeat of Katchit at Kempton as he had his perfect conditions, unlike Katchit. Still, he looked very quick that day and would come right into Champion Hurdle reckoning on good ground, which is so often the case at the Festival, although you are obviously taking a chance backing him now. Greatwood Hurdle first and second Numide (50/1 Boylesports) and Aigle D'Or (25/1 William Hill) need to show further improvement, but cannot be totally ruled out in a wide open year.

Verdict:
Sizing Europe will be hard to beat if coming back to his best and Katchit should not be underestimated but, of those at bigger prices, Ashkazar makes plenty of appeal. He's yet to put his credentials on the line this season, but he has already shown a great attitude and undoubtedly has the natural ability to take a hand come March.

Recommended Bet:

Ashkazar 1pt each way @ 16/1 bet365, Chandler

For the Champion Hurdle 2009 I see that Noel Meade’s JERED is trading at 14/1 (bet365, Paddy Power) for next year’s renewal after romping home in the Champion Novices’ Hurdle on Tuesday.

The six-year-old is getting better with every run and, if going the same route as his stablemate Harchibald (Fighting Fifth, Christmas Hurdle, Champion Hurdle), he could be value at half those odds.

Punters should help themselves to the 14’s as he is a great trading tool at that price.

Recommended Bets:

2009 Champion Hurdle - Jered 3pts @ 14/1 bet365, Paddy Power

Contrary to popular opinion, the Grand National is not a lottery of a race. Instead, it is actually one of the most reliable races to solve as several of the runners can be eliminated from calculations from a stats perspective. Here are my 10 golden rules that when applied can help punters eliminate those very horses unlikely to win.

1. Ignore horses aged seven or younger and those aged 13 or older. The last winning seven-year-old came in 1940, while the last teenager to win was in 1923.

2. Knock out any horse who has fallen more than twice in their careers.

3. Rule out any French-bred horses (those with a suffix of ‘FR‘ after their name). Plenty have tried, and failed in recent years, but no such horse has won since Lutteur in 1909.

4. Stay away from novices. The race is a severe test even for the more experienced horses.

5. Ignore horses that are set to carry more than 11st 5lb. This year, the bottom weights are likely to be carrying around 10st 8lb, which gives the horses with more weight a better chance. However, the fact remains that only Red Rum in the last 50 years has carried more weight to victory.

6.Throw out all non-stayers. Every winner in the past four decades had already won over 3m+, so check the form before placing your bet.

7. Put a line through any horse wearing headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces). Earth Summit wore blinkers when winning in 1998, but the only other blinkered winner since the war was a slightly fortuitous one - Foinavon!
 
8. Get rid of those horses who have had less than four runs this season. Every winner in the past 10 years had had at least four runs in preparation for the big race.

9. Concentrate on those horses rated between 136 and 147. That group has provided every single winner in the past decade.

10. Overlook anything that hasn’t had a recent run. Each of the past 10 winners had previously run in the past two months.

Apply all these trends and you are left with a handful of horses, including the ante post favourite CLOUDY LANE (6/1 sportingbet) and the strongly fancied SLIM PICKINGS (888sport, Betfred). They’re a must for any shortlist but, at bigger odds, BAILY BREEZE (66/1 Blue Square, Paddy Power) looks a great each way chance as the blinkers he normally wears are being left off, meaning he fits all the main stats. BLACK APALACHI (66/1 William Hill), currently one of two horses on 10st 8lb, is a sound jumper who has been running well in Ireland’s top 3m chases, including when runner-up in the Thyestes Chase in January. He too has worn headgear in the past but, if it is left off, he’s terrific each way value.

Today's the last day to take advantage of the huge bookie promos on Cheltenham including the massive Ladbrokes free bet.